N95 mask is popular in domestic market, the expansion of production capacity stirs up the industrial chain. PP market will face great changes?

聚丙烯（PP），作为国内五大通用塑料的一类，有着非常广泛的应用。塑料编织袋、包装材料外面的薄膜、口罩、无纺布防护服、洗衣机内部的波轮桶、汽车的保险杠，都是由聚丙烯制成的。

Polypropylene (PP), as one of the five general plastics in China, is widely used. Plastic woven bags, films on the outside of packaging materials, masks, non-woven protective clothing, wave buckets inside washing machines, and car bumpers are all made of polypropylene.

正是由于聚丙烯广泛的应用领域，其每年有着巨大的使用需求。有需求就会有供给，伴随着中国成为世界工厂，聚丙烯产能扩充需求明显。

It is precisely because of the wide range of applications of polypropylene (PP) that it has a huge demand for use every year. There is demand, there is supply. With China becoming a world factory, the demand for polypropylene capacity expansion is obvious.

据了解，2022年年初，行业统计的计划新增产能约735万吨。截至目前，上半年投产280万吨，下半年投产180万吨。较2021年产能增速为14.69%。增速角度而言，高于最近10年聚丙烯装置平均增速11.9%，也高于最近5年的平均产能增速13.1%.

It is understood that at the beginning of 2022, the planned new capacity of the industry statistics is about 7.35 million tons. Up to now, 2.8 million tons have been put into production in the first half of the year and 1.8 million tons in the second half of the year. Compared with the production capacity in 2021, the growth rate is 14.69%. In terms of growth rate, it is 11.9% higher than the average growth rate of polypropylene plants in the last 10 years, and 13.1% higher than the average production capacity growth rate in the last 5 years.

目前来看，2023年仍旧有1090万吨的PP产能等待释放。国内竞争日趋激烈，对市场价格上行也形成抑制。

At present, there will be 10.9 million tons PP capacity waiting to be released in 2023. Domestic competition is becoming increasingly fierce, which also inhibits the rise of market prices.

“从明年投产时间来看，春节过后市场新增供应量较大，尤其是通用料价格竞争激烈，加之春节前后下游整体开工率较低，一季度整体承压较大，价格难有亮眼的表现。”滕美霞表示，对于行业内来说，未来行业产能利用率将有所下降，预计整体聚丙烯产量增长率低于产能增长。

"From the time of production next year, there will be a large amount of new supply in the market after the Spring Festival, especially the fierce competition in the price of general materials. In addition, the overall operating rate of the downstream is low around the Spring Festival, so the overall pressure in the first quarter is large, and the price is difficult to show a bright performance." Teng Meixia said that, for the industry, the industry's capacity utilization rate will decline in the future, and it is expected that the overall polypropylene (PP) production growth rate will be lower than the capacity growth rate.

 “由于聚丙烯投产产能扩张较快，聚丙烯的销售或将面临一定的价格压力。现货贸易角度而言，现货销售区域性增强。技术角度而言，聚丙烯通用料的销售压力增大，聚丙烯的生产企业或选择生产一些利润更高的细分牌号来应对市场竞争。”陆甲明说。

"Due to the rapid expansion of the production capacity of polypropylene(PP), the sales of polypropylene(PP) may face certain price pressure. From the perspective of spot trade, spot sales will be more regional. From the perspective of technology, the sales pressure of polypropylene generic materials will increase. Polypropylene manufacturers may choose to produce some more profitable brand segments to cope with market competition." Lu Jiaming said.

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