Daily Macro Economy News on June 2nd

Latest Global Major Index

International Crude Price Trend and Exchange Rate of RMB to USD Trend

Domestic News

1. The Caixin China Manufacturing PMI was 50.9 in May, up 1.4 percent compared with April, and back in the expansion zone after two months

2. Shanghai Municipal Party Secretary Jining Chen met with Tesla CEO Elon Musk

3. Shanghai Action Plan for the Innovative Development of Computational Biology (2023-2025) was Issued

4. Coal, steel and coke market is in a clear downward trend

International News

1. Inflation is expected to fall to about 3.5% this year, a 2.5% next year, and reach the Fed's 2% target in 2025

2. ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos notes that the current rate hike cycle is coming to an end

3. The US ISM manufacturing index fell to 46.9 in May from 47.1, less than the expected value of 47, contracting for seven consecutive months, it has been the longest sustained contraction since 2009

4. US will suspend several New START required nuclear weapons information to Russia

More detials:

Domestic News

1. The Caixin China Manufacturing PMI was 50.9 in May, up 1.4 percent compared with April, and back in the expansion zone after two months

From the sub-data, the production index rose to the highest since July 2022. Meanwhile, the new orders index rose back above the critical point, reaching the second highest in the past two years. The new export orders index continued to rebound slightly.

2. Shanghai Municipal Party Secretary Jining Chen met with Tesla CEO Elon Musk

Jining Chen, the secretary of the Municipal Party Committee, said he welcomed Tesla to increase its investment and business layout in Shanghai and deepen cooperation in new energy vehicles, energy storage and other fields. Musk said he hopes to continue to deepen cooperation with Shanghai in various fields to better serve the Chinese market and the global market.

3. Shanghai Action Plan for the Innovative Development of Computational Biology (2023-2025) was Issued

The Shanghai Action Plan for the Innovative Development of Computational Biology (2023-2025) was issued, with the goal of establishing a computational biology research paradigm based on the whole chain of modeling, prediction and application, and building a preliminary infrastructure such as a big data platform for biology by 2025.

4. Coal, steel and coke market is in a clear downward trend

China Coal Transportation and Distribution Association (CCTDA) organized a seminar on the market of coal and steel industry that the current lack of demand from downstream users of steel producers, the steel industry has a large loss, at the same time, the market price of coking coal and the LTA price has a large gap, the coal steel coke market is in a clear downward trend.

International News

1. Inflation is expected to fall to about 3.5% this year, a 2.5% next year, and reach the Fed's 2% target in 2025

Patrick Harker from the Fed said it was expected that inflation will fall to about 3.5% this year, a 2.5% next year, and will reach the Fed's 2% target in 2025. Meanwhile, the GDP growth is expected to be under 1% in 2023 and unemployment will rise to 4.4%. He doesn't think there will be a recession this year and needs to maintain tightening levels at least throughout 2023. If inflation starts to fall at an unexpected rate, then the Fed may cut rates. In the short term, we appear to have resolved the debt ceiling crisis, so he assumes that it should at least skip the June rate hike.

2. ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos notes that the current rate hike cycle is coming to an end

ECB President Christine Lagarde said the ECB is determined to raise interest rates further to deal with persistently high inflation. She also stressed that the current inflation rate is still too high and will probably continue for a long time. In addition, ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos pointed out that the current cycle of interest rate hikes is coming to an end.

3. The US ISM manufacturing index fell to 46.9 in May from 47.1, less than the expected value of 47, contracting for seven consecutive months, it has been the longest sustained contraction since 2009

US ISM manufacturing index in May from the previous value of 47.1 fell back to 46.9, less than the expected value of 47, which has been contracting for seven consecutive months. It has been the longest sustained contraction time since 2009. Among them, new orders continue to contract, the price index fell by the largest rate since July last year. U.S. May Markit manufacturing PMI final value of 48.4, the initial value of 48.5, the final value of 50.2 in April.

4. US will suspend several New START required nuclear weapons information to Russia

The United States said they will stop providing Russia with several reports required by the New START treaty from Thursday, including updates on the status or location of treaty-accountable items such as missiles and launchers, in retaliation for Moscow's "ongoing violations" of the treaty. The State Department said in a briefing on its website that they will also stop providing Russia with telemetry information on U.S. intercontinental and submarine-launched ballistic missile launches. But the Department of Defense said they will continue to notify Russia of ICBM and SLBM launches under the 1988 Ballistic Missile Launch Notification Agreement, and that they are also providing exercise notifications under the 1989 Mutual Notification Agreement for Major Strategic Exercises.

Domestic Macro Economy Index