Daily Macro Economy News on June 15

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International Crude Price Trend and Exchange Rate of RMB to USD Trend

Domestic News

1. The two heads of state announced the establishment of a strategic partnership between China and Palestine and witnessed the signing of a number of bilateral cooperation documents, including an economic and technical cooperation agreement

2. The person in charge of relevant departments and bureaus of the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security pointed out that China's total working-age population will be about 880 million by the end of 2022, with a high labor force participation rate in the world, and labor resources will still be abundant

3. NDRC deploys 2023 national energy work to meet the summer energy peak need

4. Shanghai introduced the "metaverse" key technology research action plan, which will take immersive technology and Web3 technology as the two main directions

International News

1. The Federal Reserve announced the suspension of interest rate hikes as expected, stopping the previous record of ten consecutive rate hikes

2. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said that almost all participants believe that further interest rate hikes are appropriate

3. Fed FOMC economic expectations show that the median unemployment rate is expected to be 4.1%, 4.5%, and 4.5% at the end of 2023 to 2025 (March expectations were 4.5%, 4.6% and 4.6%, respectively)

4. The International Energy Agency (IEA) released its latest monthly report, saying that global oil demand will peak by 2030 as the energy transition gathers pace

More detials:

Domestic News

1. The two heads of state announced the establishment of a strategic partnership between China and Palestine and witnessed the signing of a number of bilateral cooperation documents, including an economic and technical cooperation agreement

The two heads of state announced the establishment of the China-Palestine strategic partnership and witnessed the signing of a number of bilateral cooperation documents, including an economic and technical cooperation agreement. The leaders pointed out that China is willing to deepen cooperation with the Palestinian side in building the "Belt and Road" initiative and accelerate the negotiation of the China-Palestine Free Trade Agreement.

2. The person in charge of relevant departments and bureaus of the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security pointed out that China's total working-age population will be about 880 million by the end of 2022, with a high labor force participation rate in the world, and labor resources will still be abundant

The person in charge of relevant departments and bureaus of the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security pointed out that China's total working-age population will be about 880 million by the end of 2022, with a high labor force participation rate in the world, and labor resources are still abundant. China's demographic dividend has not disappeared and a new talent dividend is taking shape. The next step will be to strengthen priority policies to expand employment capacity, strengthen key guarantees to stabilize labor supply, steadily implement national coordination of pension insurance, study and explore measures to expand the coverage of corporate pensions, and further improve supporting policies for individual pensions.

3. NDRC deploys 2023 national energy work to meet the summer energy peak need

The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) deployed 2023 national energy work to meet the summer energy peak need, requiring a solid job of energy supply, energy transformation and development work to ensure a smooth and orderly supply of energy and electricity in the summer in aspects within energy production, supply and use of various aspects.

4. Shanghai introduced the "metaverse" key technology research action plan, which will take immersive technology and Web3 technology as the two main directions

Shanghai has introduced the "metaverse" key technology research action plan, which will take immersive technology and Web3 technology as the two main directions, and intends to build an innovation hub in the key technology fields of immersive audio and video, immersive computing, new display, perceptual interaction and blockchain.

International News

1. The Federal Reserve announced the suspension of interest rate hikes as expected, stopping the previous record of ten consecutive rate hikes

The Federal Reserve announced the suspension of interest rate hikes as expected, stopping the previous record of ten consecutive rate hikes. But the release of hawkish signals, the lattice diagram and the economic outlook imply that there are two more rate hikes and 25 basis points each during this year, the market originally thought that July or September is the last rate hike in the cycle. In addition, the Fed interest rate swaps are no longer betting that the Fed will cut rates in 2023. After the announcement of the interest rate resolution, US stocks fell in the short term, the dollar index and US bond yields both went higher, and spot gold fell below the $1950 mark.

2. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said that almost all participants believe that further interest rate hikes are appropriate

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said almost all participants agreed that further rate hikes are appropriate. A rate hike may be warranted but at a more moderate pace. the July meeting will decide whether to raise rates based on circumstances. A rate cut this year would not be appropriate, and no policymaker expects to cut rates this year. The Fed remains firmly committed to its 2% inflation target. Data since the last meeting have exceeded expectations and most policymakers expect moderate economic growth to continue. Powell still believes there is a way to achieve a soft landing, and a gradual cooling of the strong labor market may help the economy achieve a soft landing.

3. Fed FOMC economic expectations show that the median unemployment rate is expected to be 4.1%, 4.5%, and 4.5% at the end of 2023 to 2025 (March expectations were 4.5%, 4.6% and 4.6%, respectively)

The Fed's FOMC economic expectations show that the median unemployment rate is expected to be 4.1%, 4.5%, and 4.5% by the end of 2023 to 2025 (March expectations are 4.5%, 4.6%, and 4.6%, respectively). Median core PCE inflation expectations are 3.9%, 2.6%, and 2.2%, respectively by the end of 2023 to 2025 (March expectations are 3.3%, 2.5%, and 2.1%, respectively), the median GDP growth rate is expected to be 1.0%, 1.1%, and 1.8% at the end of 2023 to 2025 (March expectations are 0.4%, 1.2%, and 1.9%, respectively).

4. The International Energy Agency (IEA) released its latest monthly report, saying that global oil demand will peak by 2030 as the energy transition gathers pace

The report forecasts that global oil demand will grow by 2.4 million barrels per day to a record 102.3 million barrels per day in 2023, with growth slowing to 0.86 million barrels per day next year and to 0.4 million barrels per day by 2028. The global oil supply is expected to increase by 1.4 million barrels per day to a record 101.3 million barrels per day in 2023 and by 1 million barrels per day in 2024.

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